Leinster favourites in Champions Cup semi against Saints

It befits a pan-continental tournament consisting of the cream of various leagues that the semifinals should bring together two of the table-toppers in their respective leagues.

That would have been the case for the Champions Cup semifinal between Northampton Saints and Leinster Rugby at Croke Park in Dublin on Saturday had the Irish province not opted to keep some of their powder dry during their United Rugby Championship trip to South Africa in the preceding fortnight.

Instead, Leinster lie second domestically, but that's fooling nobody. They qualified as second seeds in the Champions Cup behind an equally rampant Stade Toulousain, beating reigning champions Stade Rochelais on the way to winning all four of their pool matches and repeating that feat in the quarterfinal.

Four of their players cracked the shortlist of eight for the tournament's Player of the Year award.

Saints also qualified with four wins out of four, an impressive feat for a young side who have developed at an extraordinary pace through the season.

Led by the indefatigable Courtney Lawes in his farewell season — and also a Player of the Year nominee, with flyhalf Fin Smith — Saints have also stormed the Gallagher Premiership summit.

Leinster Rugby are firm favourites but the last time their full squad played competitively together was in that quarterfinal against Stade Rochelais. Keeping the internationals fresh after a long season is crucial, but it is also a strategy that had a seemingly negative effect in last year’s final.

Saints have had no such luxury, though some starters were benched for the recent Premiership clashes — an impressive win over East Midlands rivals Leicester Tigers, followed by a thrilling defeat against fellow Champions Cup semifinalists Harlequins.

The theory goes that Leinster should be fresher, given their deeper resources. Such was the case in the most famous EPCR meeting between the pair in the 2011 final, when the Irish outfit ran up 27 unanswered points in the second half to win 33-22.

“It’s a fine line between being battle-hardened and battle-weary,” Leinster assistant coach Robin McBryde said.

“A lot of those players would have played a high number of minutes during the Six Nations, so yeah, the result on Saturday will dictate whether we got things right. They want to be on the big stage. They get energised by being on the big stage.”

Leinster like to hoard possession, having conceded the fewest turnovers in the tournament at an average of 8.8 per match. They’ll need to be in exactly that sort of form against Saints who have made more successful tackles than any other team at an average of 163 per game and a 90.2% success rate — also a tournament best.

Both teams have in-form focal points of their attack, with James Lowe racking up tries for Leinster on the wing and Saints back Tommy Freeman in the top three for metres after contact and offloading.

The second semifinal at Stadium de Toulouse between Stade Toulousain and Harlequins on Sunday brings together another pair of teams who have already met before in this season’s tournament — but it’s more than just a rematch.

It’s a clash between the two most free-scoring, attacking sides left in the competition. Leinster and Northampton may beg to differ, but only Union Bordeaux-Bègles really come close to these two in keeping the highlight reel editors busy.

Unfortunately for Harlequins fans, the records are not in their favour. Stade Toulousain came to South-West London in round 2 of the pool matches and shredded the home defence, running in seven tries to three.

The Top 14 club boast a glittering squad featuring Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack at half-back and with the significant presences of Anthony Jelonch, Emmanuel Meafou and Cyril Baille upfront.

And that’s only the French internationals — Scotland international Blair Kinghorn has been having a whale of a time since his move from Edinburgh Rugby and was the team’s top scorer in the quarterfinal against Exeter Chiefs.

Harlequins can thrill on their day, but the suspicion is the Gallagher Premiership club have a soft underbelly and if that proves to be the case on Sunday, Stade Toulousain will expose it ruthlessly.

Champions Cup semifinals (SA times)

Saturday:

Leinster vs Northampton Saints, Croke Park (6.30pm)

Sunday:

Stade Toulousain vs Harlequins, Stadium de Toulouse (4pm)

EPCRrugby.com